At 6:30pm EST this blog calls the 2004 election for Senator John Kerry, based on analysis of election exit polling from 14 "battleground" states. According to data from the National Elections Pool, a consortium formed by the top five networks and the Associated Press, Kerry leads in nine of these crucial swing states.

The margin is large in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan , but much closer in other key states such as Florida where Kerry holds a slim one-point margin.

But the key numbers are not in the states that Kerry is winning, but in the few swing states where he is trailing. Bush is only leading in four swing states — and by only one percentage point in Nevada and Colorado, states where he was expected to run more favorably.

The trio of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have long been central to Bush’s strategy for winning. In fact, no Republican candidate has won the Presidency in recent history without carrying Ohio, where Kerry is leading by five percentage points in the latest exit polls.

Add it all up, and the winner seems clear — Kerry wins the battleground states, thus the battles and the war.

Analyzing exit polling data from the National Elections Pool, this writer decided to tell ordinary citizens what mainstream media anchors and executives at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the Associated Press already know — but won’t share with you.

Why call the election for John Kerry before the polls have even closed? After all, the networks have promised not to call any states before polls close. But in the meantime, their political reporters and analysts are busy using this data and preparing to tell you what I’ve just told you–John Kerry will be the 44th President of the United States.

I believe readers should have access to the same election information as the anchors and other journalists, so I’m publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them — and making the early call.

Some will say it’s irresponsible to make early projections of the winner because it may hurt voter turnout. But I believe our readers deserve all the information we have as soon as we can deliver it — and that they will be responsible in using that information. If the past election cycle proved anything, it demonstrated once and for all that politics and media are no longer an insiders’ game, and the days of the Big Media Priesthood are over! Remember–you read it here first…